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INDIA BUSINESS UPDATE :: CNBC TV 18; 8th Dec, 2010

BLAST OUTSIDE TEMPLE IN VARANASI, SEVERAL INJURED 
Several people including foreign tourists have reportedly been injured in a blast in the holy city of Varanasi. The blast took place at Dashashwamedh ghat on the bank of the river Ganga at about 6:30 pm. The blast took place when thousands of devotees and foreign tourists had assembled at the ghat for the Ganga Aarti.




LEAD STORIES
MID-YEAR REVIEW: GDP MAY CROSS 9%; INFLATION AT 6% 
The government in its mid-year analysis said that the economy is poised to achieve 9% growth driven by robust agriculture and industry sectors.

SENSEX DOWN 46 PTS, BANKS, REALTY SLIP 
Weak investor sentiment and hammering in banking stocks forced sensex to settle at 19,934.64 points. Nifty fell 15.70 points to settle at 5,976.55.

TOP STORIES
•Parliament paralysed for 18th working day on 2G issue 
•Forget about JPC, govt tells opposition 
•SC bans sale of gutkha, pan masala in pouches 
•High Court saves Lavasa's hill-city, for now 
•Land scam: 4-yr jail for ex-UP chief secy, Flex CEO 
•Mulayam slams Mayawati over Rs 2lk cr food scam 
•Raja tried to influence a judge: Madras HC 
•Silver touches 30-yr record at Rs 45,500/kg 
•CWG organisers accused of owing millions 
•FinMin for transparent, hands-off road auction system 
•ONGC approves bonus shares in the ratio of 1:1 
•Zee to launch 24-hour food channel 
•TRAI consultation paper on value added services soon 
•Aberdeen to hold on to stake in Hero Honda 
•A2Z IPO: Jhunjhunwala to profit 30x 
•Manappuram's gold loan biz crosses Rs 6,000-cr mark 
•HSBC fights Madoff claim; new settlement reached 
•Miffed China calls Nobel panel 'clowns' 
•Pandit spins $12 bn profit for Uncle Sam 
•WikiLeaks chief Assange arrested in London

Morning News (click on link to read article) IFCI research, 08/12/2010

Morning News (click on link to read article)

Economic Times		DNA Money
Ø  Auto fuels set to cost Rs 2/L more as crude hits $90 Ø  Fund-strapped banks offer 9.2% on 1-yr paper Ø  Jet Airways, AI strike $5-b deal for 35 Airbus aircraft Ø  ONGC plans special dividend, bonus ahead of Dec 16 FPO Ø  Lodha repays Rs.800 cr to Deutsche Bank Ø  NTPC may buy 74% in Bengal project		Ø  Toyota racks up 7,086 bookings for Etios Ø  Ramsarup goes for CDR to restructure Rs1,800 cr debt Ø  Global stocks rally on US tax deal, euro up debt hopes Ø  Airlines put up fare details on websites Ø  Cabinet okays planned $62 billion petchem project Ø  AGL Resources to buy Nicor for $2.4 billion
Business Line Ø  Court stays build-ban order on Lavasa Ø  Direct tax collections surge 17.85% in April-Nov Ø  L&T Power's order book at Rs 30,000 crore Ø  Crisil revises upwards GDP forecast to 8.6% Ø  Jindal Steel starts trial production at Oman facility		Mint Ø  Wipro bags IT support services contract from Vodafone Essar Ø  Tata AIG General Ins posts Rs 11.5-cr profit Ø  Religare to buy Piramal’s 85% stake in Indireit for Rs 212 cr Ø  Daikin in talks to buy Goodman Global: Bloomberg Ø  EU pact won’t be tighter against drugs
Financial Express Ø  Tata caused India Rs 19,074 cr loss: MP Ø  KPMG sees food retail biz at $150 bn Ø  DLF takes Cyber City case to SC Ø  Glaxo buys Chinese drugmaker for $70 mn Ø  Jupiter India buys 2% stake in EIH Ø  SC bans sale of gutkha in pouches

Credit growth robust at 22.70%:: Edelweiss

Credit growth robust at 22.70%;Credit-Deposit ratio inches higher on the back of
sluggish deposit growth



Our observations: Tracking Investment and Credit
 Cash and lending by the banking system, as observed in the Weekly Statistical
Supplement (WSS) for the fortnight-ended November 19, can be stated as below:
1. Annualized deposits growth rate remained sluggish at 15.78%
compared to 15.34% for the previous fortnight. In absolute terms the
deposits increased by INR 394 bn from previous fortnight. SCBs increased
their deposit rates by 50-75 bps across maturities to thrust mobilization of
deposits. For the fortnight ending 19th Nov, time deposits decreased by INR 54
bn while demand deposits grew by INR 448bn.

2. Y-o-Y credit off take remained robust at 22.70%. In absolute terms, off
take increased by INR 273 bn over the fortnight. With about 48% of the total
credit target for the year being disbursed in the first 8 month of FY11, around
INR 3.32 trn of credit has to come forth in the remained 4 months. However
major SCBs remain confident about meeting the targeted credit growth, given
the robust growth in the economy and the skewed demand for funds from the
corporate.
3. SLR investments decreased by INR 124bn over the fortnight. LAF
window continued to be in the injection mode for the fortnight on account of
the persistent tightness in the liquidity. In order support SCBs, the central
bank has allowed them to seek waiver of penal interest up to 28th Jan 2011,
for any shortfall in SLR maintenance arising out of availment of LAF facility.
4. M3 growth dangles around the central bank’s target of 17%. Y-o-Y M3
growth stood at 16.20% compared to 15.90% in the previous fortnight. In
absolute terms, M3 grew by INR 481 bn over the fortnight reflected in the
sharp improvement of credit deposit ratio to 73.40. However money multiplier
as on November 19 dropped by 24 bps to 4.93X.
 Total foreign exchange reserves decreased by USD 4 bn for the week ending
Nov 25, with the outstanding at USD 294 bn. The dollar index strengthened over
the fortnight, on concerns about the Euro zone crisis, reflecting a depreciation of
non-US currencies.
 O/s commercial paper increased to INR 1.5 trn for the month ended 31st
October owing to a sharp rise in demand for short term funds from NBFC for
financing primary issuances. Borrowing cost on short term instruments ranged
between 7%-18%, reflective of the abrupt surge in the demand for funds in the CP
market. O/s CDs remained stable at INR 3.32 trn since banks refrained from
renewing CDs at such elevated levels.

Morgan Stanley: Mapping Hindustan Unilever Stock Performance

HLL.BO, Hindustan Unilever (Rs299.40) /F2004 vs. F2011 – Mapping Stock 
Performance during Heightened Competition



Reiterate Underweight: We believe HUL’s EBITDA margin has peaked for now. Rising input
costs amid intense competition and slowing revenue growth are likely to constrain earnings. We
see a disconnect among industry fundamentals, with intense competition that threatens to disturb
market share equilibrium across categories, and stock valuations that at 29x 12-month forward
earnings are up 25% over the past six months.



What’s in the price: In the current cycle, the stock has been re-rated even as operating margins
continue to slide.  The market seems to be factoring in a scenario of fragmented and sporadic
competitive activity. Contrary to this, we believe that ongoing competitive activity is likely to be
sustained – it is driven by players with long-term commitments and strong balance sheets. Even if
our concerns on cost and competitive pressures eventually prove exaggerated, current
valuations leave little room for outperformance, in our view.

Severe input cost pressures across categories: HUL is likely to err on the side of caution
while passing on input cost pressures to the consumer. Its focus on defending market share will
likely delay hike prices and thus increase in the volatility in margins, near term..

Morgan Stanley: State Bank of India:: Structural vs. Cyclical

SBI.BO, State Bank of India (Rs2,952.85) /Structural vs. Cyclical 

Why should an investor buy the stock? There are a few headwinds near term – potential rights
issue, Mr. Bhatt’s retirement, potential NIM compression and asset quality issues. These are
likely to keep the stock volatile over the next 3-4 months. But, we remain very positive over 12
months and SBI remains one of our key Asian picks for 2011.


Cyclical concerns: NIM compression, asset quality. We agree that current NIMs (3.4%) are
unsustainable, and were driven by higher lending rates; an increase in LD Ratio, which helped
more assets to be financed by CASA and the lag with which deposit rates trickle through
earnings. We assume 30-35 bps NIM compression over next 5 quarters from current peak levels.
However, this should be mitigated by lower credit costs. 

Structural improvements continue unabated. In our view, the best banks are ones with strong
deposit franchises. SBI’s market share in retail demand deposits (most sticky deposits) has risen
from 20% in F2007 to ~24% now and incrementally it’s running at almost 30%. On fees income
too, SBI’s market share is increasing fairly rapidly. Its ROA from lending business is at 0.94%
from 0.5% in F2005. These factors show that the structural improvements at SBI will continue.

CESC (Favourable risk reward, ADD): IIFL

CESC (Favourable risk reward, ADD): 

Monthly cash losses in CESC’s subsidiary Spencer Retail have halved, from the average of Rs250m in FY09 to ~Rs120m in 1HFY11. Moreover, it has achieved EBITDA breakeven at store level. CESC plans to invest Rs1.5bn over the next 18-24 months in large-format stores to achieve turnaround in Spencer’s. The core power business continues to deliver value, and milestone achievement in Chandrapur and Haldia (1.2GW) projects indicates that CESC is well-placed to double its generation capacity by FY15.